Strattners Perspectives · Global Capital Markets · October 2026

The Geography of Capital Is Changing

Cross-border flows cannot be understood from headline investment totals alone.

What the numbers show

OECD data put global FDI at USD 1.66 trillion in 2025, a 15% rise. Excluding large fluctuations in selected European economies, the increase was only 6%. UNCTAD separately reported that excluding conduit flows left underlying growth of about 5%. These are different statistical adjustments and should not be equated.

Why geography is more complicated

The legal location of a financing vehicle, the home of an investor and the destination of productive investment may all differ. Intercompany loans and reinvested earnings can move the statistics without a corresponding new greenfield project.

The institutional interpretation

For an investment committee, the more useful map follows decision-makers, capital mandates, sector priorities and legal access. A high FDI figure alone does not establish where attractive investment opportunities exist.

What to watch

Greenfield commitments, completed cross-border acquisitions, underlying FDI adjusted for conduit flows and the conditions under which capital can actually be deployed.

Further reading and sources

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Research commentary based on the cited third-party publications; not investment advice or issuer-specific research.